Mines Games Early Surrender’s Impact on Players’ Expected Value
Early surrender is as rare as hen’s teeth where online blackjack is concerned, but this is unsurprising considering how sharply it reduces the house edge. The opportunity to surrender early against a dealer’s ten takes away approximately 0.24% from the casino’s advantage.
The house loses another 0.39% of its edge if early surrender is available when the dealer shows an ace. This makes for an overall house edge reduction of more than 0.60%, which enormously improves players’ expected value in the long run.
By means of comparison, reducing the number of decks in play from eight to one has a lesser impact on the house edge than early surrender. Late surrender also offers some value to blackjack players, albeit to a much lesser degree. It decreases the house edge by approximately 0.07%.
This figure may seem negligible but it still has a positive effect on players’ long-term profitability. If you consistently bet in increments of $10, for example, the late surrender rule can save you approximately ¢50 per hour over the long haul.
| Early and Late Surrender Effect on Expected Value | |
|---|---|
| Early Surrender vs. the Dealer’s 10 | 0.24% |
| Early Surrender vs. the Dealer’s Ace | 0.39% |
| Late Surrender vs. the Dealer’s 10 | 0.07% |
| Late Surrender vs. the Dealer’s Ace | 0.00% |
On rare occasions, players have the option to use late surrender after splitting a pair. Making this move unfortunately has no effect on their long-term expectation, neither increasing it nor decreasing it.
